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New Seers ( Новые Видящие) форум » Эзотерика » Состязание предсказателей "Пророк" » Открытые состязания "Пророк" 2015 » Open competition for the soothsayers "Prophet 2015"
Open competition for the soothsayers "Prophet 2015"
КочевникДата: Среда, 25.02.2015, 18:36 | Сообщение # 1
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Applications for entering an open competition "Prophet".
The competition will tentatively start at the 1st of March, 2015.

Leave here is this topic your application for the competition, stating your city and the country and write "I am over 18 years old".


Не зачем кому то учить нас магии, потому что на самом деле нет ничего такого, чему нужно было бы учится.Нам только нужен учитель, который смог бы убедить нас,какая огромная сила имеется на кончиках наших пальцев.
 
КочевникДата: Среда, 25.02.2015, 18:43 | Сообщение # 2
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Requirements for the open сompetition "Prophet"'s participants

In the open competition on the short-term week predictions can take part people of any faith, religion, esoteric school as well as atheists, analysts, prognosticators and AI (artificial intelligence). In general it can be anyone who feels his/her ability to create predictions.

Those who are under age under in his/her country laws can take part in the competition but only under the direct control of his/her parents or tutors AND with their written permit. (как им это сделать технически? возможно, через эту форму? https://rightsignature.com - позволяет онлайн оставлять свою подпись под документом. так, к примеру, переводчики соглашение о нераспространении инфы удаленно подписывают - https://rightsignature.com/forms....7a81e62 -- тогда надо заранее разработать англоязычный текст, который они будут подписывать и создать там свой такой документ.) This permit guarantee that parents/tutors take comprehensive responsibility for their child/child in ward in any case of any possible complications or aftereffects, related to the competition.

AI should be presented by a human/people and mention its short characteristics and technical base on which it is created.

There is a closed competition "Prophet" where can take part the ones who are registered on this forum (http://www.flighttoinfini.com/forum/) and are the members of the "Working group" (in their profile will be written "Рабочая группа") or are the members of NS (New Seers).

In the open сcompetition "Prophet" can participate anyone that obey the requirements above and are registered on this forum (http://www.flighttoinfini.com/forum/) with mentioning their country, city and nickname on this forum. Whether to disclose their real names or not – it’s a private decision of a person. If the names will be given by the competitors - they will be published together with nick and the prediction.
It’s obligatory to state the country, city and nickname for a participant.


Не зачем кому то учить нас магии, потому что на самом деле нет ничего такого, чему нужно было бы учится.Нам только нужен учитель, который смог бы убедить нас,какая огромная сила имеется на кончиках наших пальцев.
 
КочевникДата: Среда, 25.02.2015, 18:45 | Сообщение # 3
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Requirements for the predictions' descriptions

Description of a prediction

In a description of an event plot should present:
1 Where and when the event will take place.
2 The essence of the predicted event.
3 Consequences of the event or its significance for surrounding (people, etc).

1 Where and when the event will take place.
State the exact date of an expected event and a place (the nearest large human settlement, the town that can be found at Yandex maps and Google maps and add latitude and longitude) Example ... 20 oct 2015 approximately at 60°46'46.4N 114°45'27.8E (60.779544, 114.757733) near the town Lensk, Sakha republic (Yakutia) will fall meteorite. (To get the coordinates on the Google map just click the mouse in the supposed place of the event.)

2 The essence of the predicted event.
The short and capacious description of the event that states its main characteristics which later will help to find it's mentioning in media. Example... The large meteorite falls - for sure it's the event that fully describes its essence and it is almost impossible to calculate its exact place of fall beforehand by the modern methods, if this celestial body was not monitored - which, for sure, would have been mentioned in media in advance.

3 Consequences of the event or its significance for surrounding
"Consequences of the event" - what it will lead to. For example... In a case with meteorite - (which consequences do you predict after its fall.) It might be the appearance of crater, destructions, victims or there will be no consequences - you should mention this in the description.

The example of full description of the relevant event:
"20 oct 2015 aproximately at 60°46'46.4N 114°45'27.8E near the town Lensk, Sakha republic (Yakutia) will fall meteorite. No victims or demolitions. People will see a bright flash of light."


Sure, if this is a prediction for of one of the ordinary events, these predictions can not be applied to this contest.

For example, "the road accident in Moscow, no victims" or "one victim". Such kind of events are not accepted for this short-term predictions contest worldwide, because such kind of events with victims happen every day in the large cities. These kind of events are accepted in the prediction contest based of one city when other, specially created for that contest grade system is applied. The same applies to the earthquakes predictions (if it is done for seismo-dangerous districts and are usual background for this location). The exceptions for this rule can be done for extremely powerful earthquakes or the earthquakes in a seismo-stable zones. The same applies to the predictions of the people deaths in the war zones (for example, in Donetsk, Ukraine). People there die every day and this in the ordinary event there even for UNO, not mentioning the ordinary people (as far as I can see, UNO is more concerned with the deaths in Africa than in Europe). We cannot take the prediction of such events with people deaths in the war zones because, to our regret, it is a usual background, common event there.


Не зачем кому то учить нас магии, потому что на самом деле нет ничего такого, чему нужно было бы учится.Нам только нужен учитель, который смог бы убедить нас,какая огромная сила имеется на кончиках наших пальцев.
 
КочевникДата: Среда, 25.02.2015, 18:48 | Сообщение # 4
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The evaluation of a prediction's accuracy for the competition "Prophet"

The evaluation of a prediction's accuracy is based on the sum of points that are given for the accuracy of the description of the event's essence, the accuracy of the date, and the accuracy of the locating of the event.

The accuracy of an event's essence description is evaluated by 10-points' system. The accuracy of an event's dating is evaluated by 10-points' system. The accuracy of an event's location prediction is evaluated by 10-points' system. The maximum sum of points for a prediction for 1 event is 30 points.
The maximum sum of points for the prediction of 3 events is 90 points.

The evaluation of the event's essence description
The accuracy of the event's essence description is evaluated by the system of 10 points in comparison of the predicted event with the event that is stated is mass media or other open OFFICIAL source of information, such as online earthquakes' monitors, official weather reports, etc. At the same time personal messages, messages in social networks, blogs and other such kinds of sources are not accepted as a trusted source of the event's evidence so one should not search for the proof there.
The basic criteria, which should be paid attention to when the event is described is:
* when the accidents, crashes and disasters are predicted, the circumstances, impacts (the number of victims, destruction) are to be stated.
* when the abnormal weather events are predicted, in a description should present the detailed description of the event and its possible impacts.
The points are given when comparing the event's prediction and its corresponding piece news found in applicable media source. If the descriptions of the prediction and its impact and of the piece of news in the official information's source are completely equal, than 10 points are given.
If the description of the predicted event corresponds to the part of the event, described in mass media, than the descriptions are compared word-by-word, and the points are given on this basis.
For example:
The prediction - 10th of February, 2015 in the city N will happen the accident on an enterprise, natural gas escape, explosion, human victims - 2-3 people approximately.
The event found in mass media: 10th of February, 2015 in the city N will happened the accident on an enterprise, fire, no victims.

Verification of the event and point's crediting on the basis of the plot.
The piece of news describes: 1- the accident, 2 - the fire, 3 - the number of victims. The whole description "costs" 10 points, so each coincidence of the description in news and the prediction " costs" 3.33 points.

This means that we divide 10 points - the maximum amount of points for the full description in media - onto 3 parts (3 parts of the plot), so each part of the piece of the news in the mass media "costs" 3.3 points. Than we multiply it by the number of the matches with the description in the prediction.
Let’s calculate the number of the matches for our example:

Цитата Quotation:
The prediction - 10th of February, 2015 in the city N will happen the accident on an enterprise, natural gas escape, explosion, human victims - 2-3 people approximately.
The event found in mass media: 10th of February, 2015 in the city N will happened the accident on an enterprise, fire, no victims.


Using the formula described above we have (10/3.3)*1=3.03
so the competitor will be given 3 exactly points. The 1/10ths and 1/100ths part of the points will be calculated only if several competitors have equal amount of points. For all other cases the points will be rounded to the integer numbers.

Will not be accepted the descriptions like "somewhere will happen an accident" and the predictions than do not give the sharp description of an event, like "there will be a fire in city N" or "there will be natural disasters", "there will be a miracle in city N" and so on.

The evaluation of the accuracy of dating the prediction
If the predicted event is found in the mass media, than we compare the date of the publication of the piece of news about this event and the date when this event took place. The priority has the event itself, not its publication in news.
For the sharp correspondence of the dates 10 points are given. For each day of the difference between the date of the prediction and the date of event subtracts 1 point (for the number of days’ difference for both sides + and -)
For example, the event was predicted to happen the 5th of Jan but it happened the 10th of Jan, the difference is 5 days, so the 5 points are subtracted from the maximum of 10 points.
The events that are more/less than 10 days away from the predicted date are not accepted as the confirmation even in the case of the exact match of all other parameters with the prediction.

The evaluation of the accuracy of the locating
If the predicted event matches with an event found in mass media (or other sources) and fits into the +-10 day's interval, it is checked by its location. The events that happened beyond the radius of 300 km from the predicted place are not accepted and do not count even if they match the date and the plot of the predicted event.
If the event took place in the predicted place, than 10 points are given.
If the event took place above the radius of 10 km from the predicted place but within the radius of 300 km, in this case we subtract the difference in kilometers multiplied by 0.033 from 10 points.
The formula is:
points=10-(distance between the event and predicted events' locations)*0.033

The example:
The event was found in mass media that matches the predicted one by the plot and the date but 100 km from the predicted place (as it was written in the prediction’s description). In this case the points are given, using the mentioned formula:
10 - (100x0.033)=7points


Не зачем кому то учить нас магии, потому что на самом деле нет ничего такого, чему нужно было бы учится.Нам только нужен учитель, который смог бы убедить нас,какая огромная сила имеется на кончиках наших пальцев.
 
New Seers ( Новые Видящие) форум » Эзотерика » Состязание предсказателей "Пророк" » Открытые состязания "Пророк" 2015 » Open competition for the soothsayers "Prophet 2015"
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